America is speedrunning its descent to become the first 5th world country, but- WOAH! THERE’S RUSSIA WITH A STEEL CHAIR
Celebrity Deathmatch reboot?
Hahaha, dang, I think an MTV showdown of countries Speedrunning self destruction would be hella fun!
5thworldproblems
that brings me back…
More signs that the Special Military Operation is going well.
The key is simply ensuring that Ukraine survives whatever Putin’s planning next. This sell-off might be to fund a troop surge. There’s zero chance that Putin loses the war without at least attempting a general mobilization first. Regardless of how badly it would have the potential to backfire, it’s definitely a desperation tactic that Putin will at least attempt before admitting defeat. Ukraine’s strategy is working at the moment, but in much the same way that Ukraine attacking Russia’s economic resources is putting Russia under pressure, Russia stretching Ukraine’s manpower could put Ukraine under pressure.
In the recent drama between Fedorov and Syrskyi, one of the things Syrskyi mentioned at his dismissal was how complicated troop procurement has been. The West can loan Ukraine money, but it can’t help with Ukraine’s manpower. So whether or not Ukraine’s drone strategy can still neutralize Russia’s manpower advantage if Russia issues a general mobilization order is a question I’ve been worrying about.
More boots on the ground with a crumbling logistics footprint is not a winning offensive move. It can sort of work on a defensive footing, but without transportation, food, medical, fire support, etc its just a slowly shambling mass casualty event trying to take ground.
Russia has vaulted Ukraine to a world power in drone technology. Entire battles are being fought with land, sea and air drones. Ukraine has developed a very lucrative arms industry that has countries beating paths to their door and forming alliances with them. Russia is sending their lifeblood to be slaughtered - that will bite them badly.
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Sunk cost fallacy. Russia’s blunders will be one for the history books and will be in lectures of geopolitical and military academies for a long long time.
Sunk cost fallacy.
Not quite. If Putin surrenders now he’ll be falling out of a window, so this is more or less rational self-preservation on the part of the people actually making these decisions.
There were several ready offramps at certain stages throughout. Now that you’re broke and starting to lose ground it’s harder to declare victory and erect a statue.
Surrender? I like the way you think but I’d settle for an end of war. Either way, for what he has done to Russia, I think he’s on his way out a window either way. The public would be greatful for a change in leadership. Putin opened his own window.
I like the way you think but I’d settle for an end of war.
Even if it wasn’t a surrender, it’d definitely be spun as such by his political rivals. He needs to save face somehow and the only way to do that is new territory that Ukraine isn’t going to let him have.
It’s more a classic lesson in authoritarianism. Yeah, they can do things that are hard to do in a democracy, but they can also drag down the country with them and you can’t vote them out.
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the war was started as a way to get the military away from him because they were plotting.
Was he not popular amongst the military before the war? Why would they have been plotting against him?
It’s not really sunk cost fallacy. It’s just doing what keeps him alive at this point.
… Russia’s accelerated sale of gold from its reserves. The central bank reduced its holdings for six consecutive months during the first half of 2026
Sadly doesn’t say how much gold was sold and how much is still in Russias safes. Otherwise, one could tell if there was a Mansa Musa effect on the global gold price. And what can be expected for the future of the gold value.
From OP’s article:
Earlier, reports emerged that Russia’s central bank has reduced its gold holdings for a sixth consecutive month, selling 43.5 metric tons since January in the largest six-month drawdown recorded in at least a quarter-century.
The sales came as Russia’s federal budget deficit approached 6 trillion rubles (more than $76 billion) during the first half of the year.
So we know how much gold was sold, but I couldn’t tell you how much is left.
Thanks. I guess I missed that part.
43.5 metric tons? That war surely is expensive. I wonder what the plan is to get the return on that investment. I’m being sarcastic here. People suffer and die.
Oh would you look at that. Gold price dropped by 20%+ in 2026 after its all time high in January but it’s still more than twice as expensive as 5 years ago. I think I will refrain from jumping to conclusions for now.
They sold 43 tons of gold since January? How much fucking gold did they have? And who bought those crazy amounts?
How much fucking gold did they have?
My guess is 43 tons. That’s why they are selling diamonds now.
They still do have gold. There is a list of national gold reserves here: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves
But they moved down from one of the top spaces to number eight in recent years.
A lof of investors and countries are buying gold instead of US bonds lately
How much would this be worth? And how many days of war can you fund with it?
It’s kept at the top of this 10 story building. Hopefully you don’t suddenly decide to jump out a window when you come to claim it. It would be quite ze shame.
This is super interesting to me, beyond the fact that it evidences the strain on Russia and it’s quickly approaching financial collapse as a consequence of disastrous war on the strong people of Ukraine. This is because I recognized the potential for the next great gold bull run back in 2017 and started allocating assets. As the 2024 election came into focus, I recognized that unfortunately Trump was likely to win, greatly destabilizing the world, tee up the financial collapse of the U.S., and pour gasoline onto what was already an impressive bull market driven by central bank purchases, and accordingly I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024, when gold was $2300 an ounce. Everything has unfolded as anticipated, but prices don’t move in a straight line, and early this year, as prices got frothy and topped $5500/oz, there was a big sell off, which is generally to be expected so I just sat tight. Now I know who was selling:
The announcement follows Russia’s accelerated sale of gold from its reserves. The central bank reduced its holdings for six consecutive months during the first half of 2026 as Moscow sought liquid assets that remained accessible despite the freezing of much of its foreign-currency reserves abroad.
Look at the chart. I further noticed that the price has seemed to make a solid bottom over the last few months at around $4000/oz, paving the way for the next move upward, which in my opinion will be the big move I’ve been waiting for.
While it may not be readily apparent to everyone, the U.S. is teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, and when it goes, the dollar will go with it and destroy it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Bold claim I know, but hear me out. You can run a 2% budget deficit indefinitely when your economy grows by 3% annually. However, under Trump the budget deficit is ~6%, and due to his stupid trade wars and the impact on energy costs from the Iran war and other mismanagement, the U.S. economy is growing only at 2%, and probably shrinking if you take out the spending from the AI bubble. Worse, the U.S. has to roll over a big chunk of it’s national debt this year, and has to do so at much higher rates because no sane person or government wants to hold U.S. treasuries. The belligerence of the U.S. on the world stage, the shrinking of trade with the U.S., the inherent vulnerability to asset seizure, etc. makes U.S. treasuries a risky asset, which is reflected in the interest rate. 30 year treasuries have been sitting over 5% for a while now, a rate not held since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a sign of economic health. Trump also has recently appointed his own, handpicked, fed chair, and has appointed 3 of the 7 fed governors. If one more goes, either by Trump firing them, stochastic terrorism, or other means, he will have cemented control over the fed funds rate, and you can absolutely bet he will juice rates in the short term to provide a boost going into the mid term elections in a desperate bid to maintain control over congress. Even if he doesn’t you know he’s going to declare a false emergency, put his ICE goons as every polling station with minorities, and arrest people of color to suppress voting. This in and of itself will cause more to flee U.S. bonds and necessitate money printing to try to keep the U.S. afloat. As a consequence, we will see a massive gold spike as the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. financial empire crumbles.
I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024
I think the largest moving etf associated with gold was Jnug with a 3 year return at around 54%. If you’re okay with yoloing your entire portfolio into a volatile etf you could have put in the shipping etf Bwet and gotten a 97% return.
Gold ETF are crazy when it comes to volatility, JNug went from a market cap of $356 per share to $121 a share in the last 6 months…
While it may not be readily apparent to everyone, the U.S. is teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, and when it goes, the dollar will go with it and destroy it’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
This is the part of your plan that makes zero sense… Yes, market instability usually increases the price of physical gold. However people who believe in gold as a currency alternative typically buy actual gold, not an ETF. If the dollar crashes how are you going to turn your ETF into liquidity?
Ignoring the dozens of inherent flaws in gold as a currency alternative, how does your investment even protect you from the crisis you predict?
I think the largest moving etf associated with gold was Jnug with a 3 year return at around 54%. If you’re okay with yoloing your entire portfolio into a volatile etf you could have put in the shipping etf Bwet and gotten a 97% return.
UGL still up over 100% since June 2024.
This is the part of your plan that makes zero sense… Yes, market instability usually increases the price of physical gold. However people who believe in gold as a currency alternative typically buy actual gold, not an ETF. If the dollar crashes how are you going to turn your ETF into liquidity?
I’m not betting on gold as a currency alternative. It’s a pure speculative play. Central banks are buying gold to underpin their own currencies, and speculators will pile in when things come unglued. The dollar “crash” will effectively be runaway inflation. It will not instantly go to zero. There will be a point in time where I will liquidate and briefly go to cash, and then immediately roll over into another asset. My thinking at this point is potentially oil, as it is in high demand when there is war, and from my perspective we’re teeing up WWIII right now. I’ll make my decision when the time draws near. My expectation is that the shit will hit the fan within a year though. We’ll see.
UGL](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-UGL/?timeframe=60M) still up over 100% since June 2024.
The 3-year annualized trailing return for the ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) is approximately 42.67% to 44.73%. That was the metric I was using for the other etf. Just picking an arbitrary date to figure growth isn’t very helpful, for example I could pick 6 months ago and they would be down by 44%.
I’m not betting on gold as a currency alternative. It’s a pure speculative play. Central banks are buying gold to underpin their own currencies, and speculators will pile in when things come unglued. The dollar “crash” will effectively be runaway inflation.
Eh… Central banks on emerging economies are the primary buyers, advanced economies have been selling or holding what they have. This is because gold acts as a hedge against global inflation, not necessarily that they are trying to stabilize their own currency.
The dollar “crash” will effectively be runaway inflation. It will not instantly go to zero. There will be a point in time where I will liquidate and briefly go to cash, and then immediately roll over into another asset.
That’s a pretty big gamble… It’s not like people know when the rug pull is going to happen.
My thinking at this point is potentially oil, as it is in high demand when there is war, and from my perspective we’re teeing up WWIII right now.
See… This is where it feels like you don’t understand what you are talking about. If we have run off inflation it just doesn’t stick to currency, it’s going to affect the market as well. Meaning unless your plan is to physically buy barrels of oil your share in whatever oil company will devalue or collapse. You will see the share price skyrocket in nominal terms, but the actual value when adjusted to buying power will nosedive.
Also, oil may not be the best route if you really think there’s going to be ww3. Production increased greatly during ww2 but the share price of oil companies like standard oil did not skyrocket like munnition manufacturing companies because the US government enacted price controls. In this day and age there could also be efforts to nationalize oil production all together.
My expectation is that the shit will hit the fan within a year though. We’ll see.
Based on what? The only country that could potentially go to war against NATO would be China, and they aren’t exactly the most aggressive warlike country in the world. Not to mention that China going to war with the US would be economic suicide, especially since things are still shaky after COVID. I guess the US could have been the agressor in this scenario if they hadn’t just blew through all their munnitions on Iran. It’s going to take at least a couple years of rapid production until they feel confident to go on the offensive with a peer adversary.
I mean it’s not my money, but I think you would actually be significantly better off just buying gold from the pawnshop if you really believe in your theory. That wouldn’t be my suggestion, but it’s better than holding onto a leveraged etf.
Btw leveraged etf are meant to be utilize by day traders, not people holding onto stock for more than a day or two. They multiply their daily returns by rebalancing their exposure targets at the end of every day, using futures and swap agreements to meet their quota. Meaning even if the overall value of gold rises, choppy or sideways movements in the market can still tank your stock. Basically for them to meet their x2 daily multiplier both the value of gold and the overall stock market have to increase, because a lot of the growth is made on future contracts for other stocks.
Chat is this good
They be cooked fr fr!
