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Cake day: June 19th, 2023

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  • I’ve played that hoi4 scenario as Czechcoslovakia and the only reason it’s winnable is because it’s a game and the ai makes huge mistakes.

    I’ve been comparing this invasion of ukraine to Czechcoslovakia since almost the start, but there are differences. Not really between the justification or the foreign policy that the Russian government is using. Between the relative strength of Czechcoslovakia v nazi Germany and ukraine v russia. Also between ukraine’s negotiated treaties. Ukraine appears stronger than Czechcoslovakia but never obtained a defensive pact with a single other country. The Czechoslovaks had a defensive pact, but it was quickly abandoned. I still see letting them fall as akin to appeasement, some vying for leadership positions have suggested that abandoning defense pacts is justified sometimes. If it’s justified sometimes you may try to find a hole to make it justified all the time. All ukraine had been promised was weapons and we may be in a position where we tell ourselves we did our part even if we didn’t do enough.


  • I don’t know how many Syrian merchants would be available to ukraine. I do feel like russia may be more willing to abandon Syria than lose to ukraine. Even without russia there will still be fighting for awhile between the groups in Syria. It’s just that the russian horse in that race will no longer be in debt to them. This isn’t good for russia I’m sure, but russia has already abandoned allies for this war. Armenia was calling in the equivalent to article 5 on russia again and again. They were left to rot. I don’t know how long it would take this to pay off. I can see putting pressure on them, but if you break them in Syria, it may just cause russia to pull all the troops from there and bring them to ukraine. There’s a careful dance to play here.

    Edit, autocorrect changed mercenaries to merchants