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Cake day: August 20th, 2023

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  • That gas line goes right into Ukraine, they could have blown it up anytime they wanted safely in their own territory. So I’m not sure that makes much sense. They have not done this previously to avoid angering EU allies funding them, as some still rely on it.

    I think more likely explanations are it helps make it easier to strike and and shut down a very important rail route for Russian re supply, it brings the war to the Russian people in a way they can’t ignore, makes Putin look weak, draws Russian troops away from other fronts, and if the land is held gives Ukraine a bargaining chip in any future negotiations with Russia.








  • Following the CNE’s announcement that Maduro won the election, the Venezuelan opposition has concentrated its efforts on digitizing and publishing on the internet the voting records showing that González won with nearly 70% of the votes, documents that the regime has so far been unable to produce.

    Literally what the opposition is trying to do right now as Maduro hunts them across the country, trying to imprison them all or worse. Over 1,000 people from the opposition the regime Maduro has imprisoned. Meanwhile Maduro hasn’t released any documentation that backs up his ridiculous results, results that conflict with numerous independent exit polls that show a landslide victory for the opposition. The election monitors Maduro himself invited, the Carter Center, have widely condemned the election. Leftist leaders in Colombia and Brazil are condemning him.

    https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-results-3ec88b273cabfee8e5696ff67d24186d

    The mission, led by the Carter Center, a pro-democracy organization, said late Tuesday that the election violated Venezuela’s own laws and the government’s failure to release a vote count was a “serious breach of electoral principles.”

    Maduro has all the results immediately available to him and all the many recourses of an entire country’s government but won’t release. Meanwhile he’s busy hunting and jailing opposition members who are trying to go individually from polling station to polling station across the country to try and get copies of receipts while the government does everything in their power to prevent their release.

    Boggles my mind anyone could try and defend Maduro.

    Oh and if you want to see what the opposition has been able to publish online so far look here:

    https://supervisiondev2.metabaseapp.com/public/dashboard/6b2f7b3b-16ec-4af6-84c7-69c39ee2139d?tab=16-english

    The only one trying to block transparency here is Maduro.


  • On July 23, 2016, ahead of the 2016 Democratic National Convention, the 2016 DNC Rules Committee voted overwhelmingly (158–6) to adopt a superdelegate reform package. The new rules were the result of a compromise between the Hillary Clinton and the Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns

    Ultimately, the DNC decided to prevent superdelegates from voting on the first ballot, instead of reducing their numbers

    People keep seeming to forget about the super delegate reform Bernie fought for. They are still there now, 15% of all the delegates (a lot of the super delegates being democratic elected officials like members of congress since that automatically gives the status). But they can’t vote in the first ballot any longer. They could only vote in a contested election in subsequent ballots, after all the other pledged delegates are unbound as well.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

    Even before those reforms, they never really made a difference in any convention, except possibly 1984 when they helped push Mondale from a plurality to a majority by voting for him on the first ballot.

    I’m not personally in favor of them at all, but it’s not nearly as bad as it’s made out to be sometimes. If we go to an open convention though, unless there’s a majority choice on the first ballot, they may play a role on subsequent ballots.


  • Yes, that’s true. The poll averages themselves haven’t moved much either though. And the reliance on the fundamentals forecast has me nervous, but they definitely do it for a reason. When they developed the models and looked at poll history the pattern they found was the fundamentals had a big influence on what the polls would look like closer to the election and the eventual result. Polls closer to the election are more predictive than the fundamentals. Polls farther away from the election less so. There’s at least some reason to think things have changed enough maybe the fundamentals aren’t as fundamental for this race, but I guess we won’t know until afterward.


  • Exactly, I think because races have been so close lately, and the probabilities are ending up close to 50% often, people sometimes unintentionally conflate them with poll numbers. 53% to 46% would be a massive poll lead. For probabilities though in this situation it’s the same as saying they have even odds of winning. Look at those massive 95% confidence intervals, the race is in a statistical dead heat. It’s kind of remarkable how steady it has been despite all the wild events that have happened.






  • It’s mostly been conservatives that have a problem with this, not progressives for the most part. I mean sure some progressives are against but they’re by far the minority.

    I know progressives and democrats, and conservatives and Republicans, aren’t the same thing, but you get the picture. I think most on the left would prefer to stand up to authoritian genocidal governments, whereas many conservatives crazily see a lot they like in Russian government and want the US to embrace them.





  • France, Germany and the ECB worry about Russian retaliation targeting European assets, and also the potential impact on financial stability and the euro’s status as a reserve currency. There’s concern that depositors from emerging economies may be encouraged to pull money out of western banks, fragmenting the global financial system.

    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen downplayed such risks in February, arguing that “there are not alternatives to the dollar, euro, yen.” She said that if the G-7 acted together then the group would be representing half of the global economy and all of the currencies that really have the capacity at this point to serve as reserve currencies.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-seizing-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine-is-fraught/ar-BB1jHeKz

    I agree with you, they should just be able to tap the assets directly. Basically some European countries are worried about the effects seizing assets could have on the Euro. Most of these assets are held in Europe as euros. The loan is actually an improvement over the original proposal though. Originally France Germany, etc were pushing only for the 3 billion in interest a year on the assets to be given to Ukraine. The loan solution was pushed by other countries who wanted to give them more cash from the Russian assets as a way to give $50 billion in cash immediately, with those yearly interest payments from Russian assets being used to pay off the loan.