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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • Anyone can go and look at the S-1 filing to see under the hood or check out what financial analysts say about it. Total collapse is not likely (right now) for various reasons within it.

    The article has the ultimate answer to your question: if they don’t build revenue to match the massive investments they’ve committed through 2045, they go bankrupt.

    Long term bubble or not, everyone involved in (selling during) this IPO is going to have made off like a bandit well before that. This includes earlier investors like Amazon, if the stock price goes above $59 per share and their convertible notes can be exchanged for equity.

    The full S-1 is over 300 pages. Here’s a summary example that appears to be free if you’re interested in some details: https://sec-api.io/insights/anthropic-ant-s-1-ipo-sec-filing-analysis (fair warning: this one reads like AI was involved)


  • It must be 1926. We have a prosperous decade leading up to a market inflated by stock market speculation, stock prices that are unlikely to match anticipated future earnings, the fed increasing interest rates to curb spending which is impacting construction investment, the overproduction of certain commodities, reduction in foreign trade and lending, and retaliatory tariffs and protectionist policies going into effect.

    Oh wait, it’s 100 years later and it just rhymes with the lead up to the Great Depression? Cool.