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Cake day: September 15th, 2023

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  • The only country that can be blamed for destroying Iraqi industry is the USA. Two decades of war, one decade of sanctions and another decade of war (by Saddam against Iran) sponsored by the USA in the 1980s.

    Obviously, Iranian industry will outcompete Iraqi industry at this point in history.

    Iraq needs to rebuild and they need outside help.

    I’m not gonna defend Iranian war mongering. And neither will I defend Turkish war mongering, or IS, USA or Israeli war mongering.

    But the only path forward for Iraq is by making peace with the two power brokers in the region: Turkey and Iran.

    And that’s what the current government is trying to achieve. The Turkey-Iraq corridor and the new port they are building are going to lay the foundation for their future prosperity.

    As for Iran, Iran is desperate for allies. It won’t be that difficult to find some mutually beneficial relationship with them.


  • It’s more-or-less geographic destiny that Iran and Turkey will become the dominant powers in Western Asia.

    They both basically ruled the area for most of history.

    The best we (the West) could do is nudge them towards human rights and peace and friendship. For Turkey, that’s mostly a done deal.

    For Iran, that was exactly what Obama tried to do. And it’s also what Iran has been trying to get for the past 25 years.

    Iran is inherently on a path towards secularisation and more dovish policies. It’s the threat of war by the US and Israel that keeps the defense hawks in power.

    Iran, especially, will never fully trust the USA - and for good reason. But they do want better relations with the USA. They just don’t want to get burned or bombed.




  • Hamas is trying to keep as many alive as they can.

    But (a) 2000 pound bunker busters don’t discriminate between Palestinians and Israelis and (b) if the IDF comes too close to the hostages, their guards have to decide whether to let them go alive or to kill them.

    In the case of the Druze guy, I can definitely see Hamas choosing not to kill him. But in cases of Israelis who also served in the IDF, the rational choice is to kill them instead of giving the IDF a propaganda win.

    And finally, sometimes the IDF probably accidentally kills them and tries to blame Hamas if they can get away with it.









  • The ICJ ruling will take years though.

    I think the most similar genocide to the Gaza genocide is the Bosnian genocide. The Srebrenica massacre took place in 1995 and the ICJ ruled in 2007.

    So, the Gaza genocide might take until 2035 before it is all legally settled.

    In the interim, Wikipedia and all of us need to decide what to call it.

    Since it looks like a genocide and the initial findings support the case that genocide is likely being committed, it seems to border on genocide denial to call it anything else.

    Edit to add: I also don’t see people complaining about Wikipedia calling the Rohingya genocide a genocide, even though it is legally in the same phase as the Gaza genocide.