Definitely makes sense. They know they can’t count on the Kerch bridge being there. Still, with the heavy fortifications they’ve got around Tokmak, it feels premature to abandon it. I welcome it, of course, but it really feels like a lynch pin.

That’s… one hell of a goodwill gesture. Calling Tokmak “strategically important” is kind of burying the lede. All of the rail transport from Russia to Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Crimea go through Tokmak. Gerasimov’s “goodwill gesture” would mean that Russia would be unable to effectively supply the vast majority if its current holdings in Ukraine. They’d have to rely on road transportation (which is all within range of HIMARs), sea transportation (which is vulnerable to drones), or air transportation (which in addition to being totally insufficient, would also be in range of a lot of AA systems). Basically, he’s saying that the war is over.

WTF is up with all the NSFW tags, and the massive ChatGPT-like spam?

Another +1 for Arris. It’s been a rock-solid workhorse. I’m a big fan of them.