Like… Ninja Girl and Samurai Master?

Because that was awesome and I’d like more of it

That’s not what is being reported. They are still making advances. Even pro-Ukrainian channels are reporting this.

Advancements of a few sq. kms a day mean nothing compared to 2022 or 2023 style movements that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (when Russia attacks) or Ukrainian Counter-offensive (in late 2022) performed.

The line is more static today than ever before.

Kinda false, there are a number of videos showing artillery hitting moving targets, maybe those are rare, but they are non-zero.

It requires special rounds like Copperhead (laser guided artillery), or BONUS (Infrared Guided / Heat guided Artillery). These rounds are very special and are not typical artillery. And they only work in very specific circumstances.

Copperhead needs someone at the frontline shining a laser to pinpoint the target. BONUS only works vs hot tanks or vehicles. So “some”, very rare very expensive artillery rounds, can hit a moving target. But we can ignore them for the most part since the 99% of artillery rounds used are dumb rounds.

If the glide bombs are easy to intercept, why are Uranians complaining about them all the time?

Because Ukrainian defenses only work vs glide bombs if they have an ambush setup. And Ukrainians have very few anti-air missiles. Russia only has to attack randomly along the front, and the Ukrainian ground defenses are too slow to reposition to the movements of Russian aircraft.

But Ukraine is 100% allowed to intercept and kill Russian fighter/bombers using these glide bombs. Ukraine simply doesn’t have the capacity to effectively and reliably do so however. That’s why F16s are so important, they are fast enough to launch air-to-air missiles vs the glide bombers and whittle the Russian aircraft down more reliably.

As for the American systems, it seems odd that if Ukraine already has unlimited permission, why are there still articles about Ukraine asking for it repeatedly?

Its not what you said earlier. What the Ukrainians wish is for more permissions. Ukrainians want deep strikes that can target Russian Air Bases. Ukraine wants to hit the fighter/bombers on the ground before they take off. These locations are so deep into Russia that USA is nervous about authorizing it, as it’d definitely be another escalation.

But Ukraine is 100% allowed (and already has), shot down Russian fighter/bombers on glide bomb maneuvers. Its a difficult shot for a ground-to-air system like Patriot. But it should get much easier to do after F16s arrive.

To be honest, we both want Ukraine to win, and all was saying is that in a modern war where both sides have access to a lot of resources, there are no wonder weapons that will shift the game sufficiently to push for a quick win and that we should not underestimate the enemy. Things help and we in the West, should be doing more to help.

F16s should be key for the glide-bomb problem. But I’m seeing estimates that Ukraine needs 200+ F16s for that to really be enough.

A dozen or so F16s is barely moving the needle. But at least Ukraine has some F16s coming and can start doing something about that particular problem.

They don’t need to

1st Guards Tank Army probably could face M1 Abrams in maneuver warfare. That was literally their training.

We’ve gone from a position where the Russians had a command of the frontlines, into a position where Russians are forced to use inferior equipment and ambush tactics. Its why the Russians are unable to effectively attack into Ukrainian defenses anymore.

Now you’re right in that Ukraine may not have the strength to attack into Russian defenses. But that’s what F16s are supposed to change. Is it enough? Who knows, but its better than nothing and better than what was available in 2023. What I can say for sure, is that Russia has also been unable to mount an effective attack.

In any case, I think the M2 Bradley is probably a match for T-55. M2 Bradley doesn’t have the same firepower, but it does have homing missiles. T-55 thin armor probably gets penetrated by enough M2 Bradley armor-piercing rounds (not that I’m an expert in that, but… M2 Bradley did take down more powerful tanks already). Its not what the M2 Bradley was designed for, but its showing the technological advantage Ukraine now commands on the front.

Remember: M2 Bradley is a troop-carrier. Not a tank. But it seems to match up favorably against many Russian tanks in practice, because Russians have had their forces degenerate so much.

at which point they are artillery and drone targets.

If you move, artillery can’t hit you. Artillery takes over a minute before it lands. That’s why tanks exist, tanks are close enough to bring the guns to the frontlines and instantly strike a target, because striking a target within 3km is just a few seconds at most… while striking a target 20km away with Artillery has all kinds of delays and downsides.

Drones are subject to electronic warfare and anti-air guns like the German Flakpanzer Gepard, or US’s MACE system (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5e-KIu7t3M). Aimbot + RADAR == dead drones. Yes, Ukraine needs to advance under the cover of anti-air (and those anti-air can be targeted by guide bombs or other more powerful weapons). But there’s a plan in place for that too.

For now they are unfortunately still making gains everyday.

Russia has still lost territory since 2022 actually. Russia has been unable to secure Donbas or Luhansk. Russia then starts a new front in Kharkiv and immediately stalls out.

Russia, even with all their meatwave attacks, was unable to cause anything like the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kharkiv_counteroffensive). It is Kyiv / Ukrainians who have effectively counter-attacked and changed territory last. Everything else is just a rounding error.

It seems that currently glide bombs are a large problem but for f16 to be effective, they need to have permission to engage russian fighter/bombers that tend to fire from deep inside russia, out of “allowed” reach for western missiles. To me thats a massive issue.

That’s not how glide-bombs work. Glide bombs don’t have any rockets, they literally fall into their target with little wings to extend the range a bit. Glide Bombs only have like 100km range or something like that, and the Fighter/Bombers that launch these glide bombs have already been taken out by well placed Patriot systems (or … something??. But probably Patriot missiles given what has been publicly released. I think there were some discussions that the Ukrainians made a ground-launched tube that can shoot air-to-air missiles from the ground… so its not necessarily the “Patriot” system that killed those fighter-bombers. But whatever it was, the Ukrainians have the capability for that kind of ground-based ambush today).

The problem is that its very difficult to constantly move Patriot systems (or any other ground-based system), so the Russians can just attack elsewhere. The Ukrainians need an aircraft that can meet the speed of enemy aircraft so that anti-air can follow Russians as they fly around the frontlines. But Ukraine is actually already in a position where they can position Patriot missiles (or whatever ground-based system they’re using) to stop glide-bomb attacks in one area. Ukraine just can’t afford to defend the whole frontline, and Ukraine cannot move those Patriots / ground defenses faster than Russia can move Glide-bomb / Jets.

Finally, USA has given permission to use American equipment anywhere the Russians are attacking from. Your point is moot as of a month or two ago, the Ukrainians already have that permission. Its simply an issue of capabilities.

Neither apparent hurt for vehicles or manpower losses deters them. Do see Ukrainians making some gains recently from time to time, but overall, its still not going well enough.

No one expects Ukraine to make gains this year. Everyone expects Russians to attack and pin everything on the hopes of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election (wherein Donald Trump then cuts off funding, preventing Ukrainians from counter-attacking next year).

That’s Russia’s plan. Ukraine has placed their trust / counter-offensive in the hands of the election. I don’t think Ukraine will surrender if Donald Trump becomes President though, Europe should be strong enough to keep Ukraine going even without the USA in 2025.

Problem is that they still have thousands in storage, even if they are in bad condition, a tank is a tank, it still has its place in war.

When we get to T-55, these tanks are unable to damage an M1 Abrams. Furthermore, T-55 are a stop-and-shoot tank, they’re unable to attack while moving. Etc. etc. And again: Russia has runout of tanks and IFVs in practice. A lot of today’s attacks in Kharkiv are motorcycle and golf-cart attacks.

I’m not saying that it will be easy. I’m saying that the change from highly regarded Russian 1st Guards Tank Army that took over huge swaths of Ukraine in the first weeks of the war is over. 1st Guards Tank Army has been crushed. Russia is reconstituting them now, but they are noticeably absent from the battlefield.

Then Wagner showed up with tanks and other advanced equipment. Now they’re gone.

And then we have shitty ass T-55s that are wholly outmatched by Leopard and Abrams. In an ambush maybe the T55 can still disable the tread and score mobility kills, but its really not as threatening as what Russia was sending initially. Luckily, the best Russian equipment seems to have already been wiped out from 2022 and 2023.

Obviously its not the time to get complacent. But we can’t deny the shift in Ukrainian’s favor.

Except that as an attacker you can choose where to attack and prepare to be there faster than the defenders can get people there. so you can attack with 30 where they only have 5 defenders and be gone before reenforcements arrive since they don’t know where you will attack until you start.

Satellites, Drones, and Landmines.

1. Both powers effectively have a Space program. I dunno what intelligence USA is sharing with Ukraine but surely USA’s satellites are part of the deal. Russia also has a space program and can similarly spy on movements from space.

2. Drones can see troop movements long before they reach the front.

3. For all other problems, you have landmines. Which slow down attacks and force them to be in single-file behind a landmine clearing machine. Spoiler alert: the attack will follow the path of the landmine clearing machine. Just let the machine finish and wait for the obvious attack, then ambush them.

The issue early in the war was that Ukraine didn’t have sufficient mechanized forces and a lot of Ukrainian fighting was done on foot (or if they were lucky: out of a Toyota pickup truck). Then in 2023, NATO provided significant numbers of tanks, M2 Bradleys and other equipment allowing for maneuver warfare and maneuver defenses.

As long as the Ukrainian defense stays watchful with Satellites, Drones, and Landmines, they always will meet the enemy in an advantage. That’s why the lines are so static. The problem also happened when Russia was on defense and Ukraine was on offense: Ukraine was unable to breakthrough because Russia could just copy this easy defensive strategy.

3-to-1 ratio was needed BEFORE Ukrainian war began. It has become abundantly clear that the new technological weapons have made the ratio worse. There’s some areas where Ukrainian defense can hold at 6-to-1 odds or even 10-to-1 odds. I don’t know what the new generals think of the new math, but everyone agrees that defense is king right now.

Its not people that Russia will run out of, but instead equipment.

Russia moved from T-72 tanks, to T-55 tanks, and now golf-carts and motorcycles. Russia has moved from 152mm artillery and regular thermobaric rockets to heavy mortar. And now that mortar is getting blown up, the Russians are begging the North Koreans for more shells and artillery.

We’re clearly witnessing the degeneration of the entirety of Russian force technology. Meanwhile, F16s are about to join the Ukrainian side as Ukraine gets more and more upgrades.

Once the equipment runs out, then what? No number of Russians on golf-carts / motorcycles will allow for a match vs a Ukrainian M2 Bradley.

You need over 3 attackers to counteract 1 defender today.

Any attack, especially in today’s always-connected, drone-scouted, satellite image war, will get counter-attacked / counter-bombarded by artillery, hampering the attacker and giving huge advantages to the defender.

Furthermore, well prepared landmines force attackers into performing tasks (ex: demining), which itself can be detected and reacted upon. (Ex: enemy tanks will always run single-file down a de-mined lane. You can take your time to position anti-tank Javelins, Stuga, or BONUS artillery given the obvious and predictable paths that landmines force).

Russia still outnumbers Ukraine. Having the Russians kill themselves over Ukrainian defenses is the best preparation, as it means there will be fewer defenders next year when Ukraine is ready to attack.

The only problem with the plan is that Russia might have been smart enough to defend and prepare instead. But Ukraine figured out the politics too well (ex: Russia clearly wants Donestk and Luhansk regions this much, and are willing to pay for it in blood). So Ukraine can just sit, defend, and deny Russian control over these regions. Leading to a political loss for Putin while still not having to deal with today’s defense-advantaged technology.

This has been known for some time.

Its also a year where Russia is going all out, sacrificing troops for miniscule gains. Its not the time to attack. Instead, its the time for Ukraine to sit back and defend. With any luck, Ukraine can minimize the Russian gains this year, and next year is the next chance they have (after Russian troops are exhausted) to do something about it.

Dungeon People at #36.

I saw the trailer a few days ago, it was quite impressive. I’m likely going to check it out soon when more episodes come out.

You might want to see who they threw into WW2.

Hint: It was the Ukrainians. The ability for Ukrainians to survive is epic. Still, we need to support them to minimize their pain, we don’t want them to suffer WW2-like losses again or be forced to bear such burdens for Russia in the future.

Iran hurting almost nobody is in everyone’s best interests.

We don’t need Israel vs Iran lobbing missiles at each other or marching to attack each other. Shooting down every single Iranian rocket was the fastest and simplest way to peace.

But why exactly is Vahz, the dark mascot, setting all of this up for?

Entropy.

House Republicans / Mike Johnson specifically, as well as the Trump-wing of Republicans who continue to grow power.

I think I can give credit to Mitch McConnell for doing his best to push through a pro-Ukrainian Senate Bill. McConnell has lost a lot of leeway with the MAGA-wing (who has grown in power more-and-more in the past decade).

Not “The West”. “United States”.

USA stopped aid in December 2023. We ran out of paper-budgeting / bean-counting, and our Congress (specifically the Republican party side of the House) refuses to fix the problem. One of the largest portions of USA’s aid contributions was hundreds-of-thousands of 155mm shells each month, as well as M30 and M31 HIMARS rockets.

Ukraine has always been public about how awesome the United States weapons are. And after a month and a half without those weapons, they’re already being pushed back by the Russians.

I’ll give Senate Republicans credit for negotiating the aid package from December through January. I’ll note that Donald Trump’s public comments killed the original Senate Deal, but the Senators (including Senate Republicans) pushed hard to pass a bill anyway. Its all up to the House / Representative Mike Johnson now to finish the package and sign the bill into law.

Uh… Apartheid? Occupation of the West Bank and Jerusalem?

Gaza/Hamas doesn’t operate under West Bank or Jerusalem. The policies you’re talking about don’t even apply to Hamas.

Are you being intentionally obtuse?

You’re the one pointing out policies and issues outside of Gaza right now. Are you confused about the geography?

The favor of being blockaded? Again, there’s a reason the UN still considers Gaza occupied by Israel.

Blockaded by who? Answer: Israel + Egypt. Gaza has a land-border to a majority Muslim country. Go ask yourself why Egypt doesn’t want to help Hamas, and maybe you’ll start understanding the local politics.

I stand by what I said before.

1948 is a stupid start date for understanding this problem. The Israeli state was promised by the British in 1917, years before the British took over the region of Palestine. Deal with it. Before the founding of Mandatory Palestine of 1920 (which only existed as a piecemeal state the British took over after the Ottoman collapse), Britain already had plans for Israel.

History is a wee bit deeper than you might think it seems. Balfour Declaration is rather significant to the discussion, and your avoidance of the subject is quite telling. The plans for Israeli settlement were laid out nearly three decades before 1948.

It is not a “stupid start date” is the start date that Israel became Israel and stole the land from the Palestinian people.

So you really don’t know what the Balfour Declaration was, who the Ottomans were, the end of WW1 or any of that?

Fine, whatever. Figure it out yourself.

It all started the moment they stole the land in 1948

That’s a fucking stupid start date.

It all started when the Ottoman Empire collapsed in 1917. The breakup of the empire leads to the modern Middle East crisis. Part of the deal from WW1 was Britain’s plan for the former Ottomans. Yes, it involves Israel and Palestine. It also involves a bunch of other things.

Palestine always was under another state. Yes, It was a Muslim Controlled Empire of the past few centuries, but that power doesn’t exist anymore.

Israel is stealing more land and homes and on a daily basis

Like all the settlers they removed from Gaza in 2005 and all the soldiers they removed?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_disengagement_from_Gaza

This is fucking why Gaza vs West Bank matters dude. Gaza is the side the Israeli’s left and returned. To be attacked from “this side” is a huge deal from the perspective of the greater Palestinians vs Israel conflict… and for those who want peace in this region. Hamas has shattered the peace in a way that seemingly cannot be put back together.

Just 6 months ago, Israel was far more focused on West Bank issues than Gaza. Or have you forgotten? Its like history of the last 15 years is completely missing from your understanding, and you are choosing exceptionally weird dates (wtf? 1948 ain’t even the start of the Israel plan. Why the fuck are you choosing this date historically? Most people would choose Balfour Declaration or some shit).

Unprovoked? What do you think has been going on the past 75 years?

I dunno. What do you think has been going on?

The borders haven’t shifted since 1968. So… please, explain. (Israel had a spat with Egypt but that’s over by 1982 as the land was returned). Land-area wise, its pretty close to 1949 all else considered.

What do you think has been going on since 2005? Israel removed its troops and settlers from Gaza 2005. And how did Hamas/Gaza repay the favor?

Would been nice if Israel did not do illegal settlements, stealing more homes.

Yeah that’s called the West Bank. That’s not even part of Gaza / where Hamas has control. You’re conflating issues as if I’m a dumbass who doesn’t know what’s going on in that region.

Want to talk about warcrimes? Check Israel’s history and ongoing warcrimes first.

So do you condone Oct. 7th or not? Both sides can be jackasses. Whataboutism fucking sucks when Republicans do it, I’m not going to tolerate it here either. If both sides suck, then we have other things to do.

But just saying “Oh, these warcrimes are fine but those aren’t” is no way to solve any issue. You wouldn’t be able to solve two 5-year-olds fighting with that kind of nonsense, and it obviously wouldn’t work on adults who are literally launching bombs at each other.